How will the coronavirus affect the global economy?

Tom Rogers
Head of Macro Consulting, Asia

Louis Kuijs
Chief Asia Economist

February 2020

Coronavirus outbreak: progress in China

Consumption to take the heaviest toll, followed by investment and exports


Component shortages may trigger chaos elsewhere



Our February forecast for China for 3.8 y/y growth in
Q1 and 5.4% in 2020 (vs 6% and 6% previously)

Speed of resumption to normality remains slow and
uncertain  downside risks to our forecast

Nonetheless , we continue to think the economic
impact will be high but short lived

Also worth noting government’s insistence it can meet
the 6% target for 2020

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